Equity Premium Forecasts with an Unknown Number of Structural Breaks
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Predicting the Equity Premium: The Advantages of Combination Forecasts
While a host of economic variables have been identified in the literature with the apparent in-sample ability to predict the equity premium, Goyal and Welch (2007) find that these variables fail to deliver consistent out-of-sample forecast gains relative to the historical average. In this paper, we demonstrate that despite the failure of individual predictive regression model forecasts to outpe...
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To estimate the equity premium, it is helpful to use finance theory: not the old-fashioned theory that efficient markets imply a constant equity premium, but theory that restricts the time-series behavior of valuation ratios, and that links the cross-section of stock prices to the level of the equity premium. Under plausible conditions, valuation ratios such as the dividend-price ratio should n...
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To estimate the equity premium, it is helpful to use finance theory: not the old-fashioned theory that efficient markets imply a constant equity premium, but theory that restricts the time-series behavior of valuation ratios, and that links the cross-section of stock prices to the level of the equity premium. Under plausible conditions, valuation ratios such as the dividend-price ratio should n...
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Existing empirical research investigating the size of the equity premium has largely consisted of a series of innovations around a common theme: producing a better estimate of the equity premium by using better data or a better estimation technique. The equity premium estimate that emerges from most of this work matches one moment of the data alone: the mean difference between an estimate of th...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Financial Econometrics
سال: 2019
ISSN: 1479-8409,1479-8417
DOI: 10.1093/jjfinec/nby034